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As I type this Full Tilt Poker's software client is down. Players are panicking and rumors are running rampant in the online poker world. The Alderney Gambling Control Commission suspended Full Tilt Poker's license to operate their online poker room in Alderney. This was done ten weeks after Black Friday when Full Tilt Poker pulled out of the U.S. market. During those ten weeks U.S. players have not been paid. Players outside the U.S. have reported their own payout problems. In fact Moneybookers just dropped Full Tilt Poker as a client so Moneybookers is no longer available as a cashout or deposit option on Full Tilt Poker. This has put further pressure on Full Tilt.
There are quite a few ways the Full Tilt Poker situation could play out. At this point it is all guesswork but with some scenarios are more likely than others.
Reopening Under Another Licensing Jurisdiction
To me the most likely scenario is Full Tilt Poker reopening under another gaming commission. The KGC seems to be the most likely. Full Tilt Poker once held a license there. It seems that getting a license there again could be the easiest and fastest way to reopen as a licensed online poker room. Another option would be to get licensed in Malta. This would be better for players in high tax EU countries as players in those countries would likely be unwilling to play on Full Tilt Poker if it meant having to pay taxes they could otherwise avoid. The downside of this is that they could be offline for a longer period of time trying to gain licensing approval. Full Tilt getting licensed in a legitimate licensing jurisdiction could be impossible considering Full Tilt is in default on what some have speculated is over $100 million to U.S. players.
Reopen Without a License
This would be the fastest way for Full Tilt Poker to reopen. It would come with several problems though. While players in the U.S. have played on unlicensed gambling sites typically players in the EU, Canada and Asia, have the luxury of playing online poker at licensed poker rooms. This could further hurt Full Tilt's reputation. I feel players would be unwilling to play on an unlicensed Full Tilt Poker. There could also be problems with payment processors. It will be harder to find reputable payment processors for an unlicensed gambling company. Processors that would be willing to work with Full Tilt would charge them more for their services.
Full Tilt Poker could also have the problem with having to relocate their business. Not only is that expensive it would be difficult for many employees to move to another country, especially without notice. There is also the issue of reliable internet. There are few if any places in the world that Full Tilt could operate their poker room unlicensed where there is a reliable internet structure in place that could handle their volume.
Merge With Another Online Poker Room
Full Tilt Poker's market value just took quite a hit. This could be the opportunity for a well established online poker room to come in and save the day. The software Full Tilt owns is one of the best in the industry. They also own Rush Poker which could be a valuable asset to a competing online poker room. The brand name still has value as well. If a competing online poker room came in to bailout Full Tilt Poker the goodwill could be priceless. This scenario could leave U.S. players out in the cold though. If a non U.S. gaming company took over Full Tilt Poker U.S. players would be at the bottom of the list of people to get paid. There could also be legal problems with an online poker room buying Full Tilt without going through a bankruptcy process as there could still be legal issues in the U.S. for the company.
Brick and Mortar Casino Takeover
U.S. brick and mortar casinos are becoming more and more optimistic that there will be online poker in the U.S. soon. If a U.S. brick and mortar casino company took over Full Tilt Poker and bailed them out then there would be a lot of positives to come out of that. The casino company would walk into a turnkey online poker room that is the second largest online poker room in the world. If this company were able to get U.S. players paid they would add goodwill to their brand name. When the U.S. players that finally received their Full Tilt money visited Las Vegas the casino company that bailed them out would likely be their first choice for hotel and casino play. When online poker became regulated the casino company would already have a strong brand name in the U.S. which would give them a big edge over competing casino companies.
A brick and mortar company in the U.S. would likely have to receive approval from the Department of Justice to make this purchase. This would shield them from the liability Full Tilt Poker faces in the U.S. including the fine of up to $1 billion. I have to wonder if the DOJ would approve a U.S. company paying off Full Tilt without the DOJ getting their money first.
Wait for Alderney Regulatory Hearing
Full Tilt might wait until the regulatory hearing on July 26 to see if they can get reinstated. By doing this their software would be offline for a month. This would be devastating to their reputation. Being closed a month could mean the same to players as being completely out of business. It would seem likely the regulatory hearing would bring the same result too, Full Tilt could wait a month to find out they lost their license. There would seem to be little motivation for Alderney to change their mind. If Full Tilt is not operating then U.S. players would still not be paid and players outside the U.S. would not be paid either since their license suspension does not allow for that.
Full Tilt Could Close
While I feel this is not likely it is possible Full Tilt could be under so much red ink that there is no way out. If the value of Full Tilt's software and patents are worth less than the balances owed to players then Full Tilt would be technically bankrupt. I doubt that is the case but only the people who have first hand knowledge of Full Tilt's book know for sure.
Other Issues Related to License Suspension
Timing of the Suspension
The timing of the license suspension leaves me to wonder what happened to cause this. There is no doubt other companies licensed in Alderney had to be unhappy with sharing a licensing jurisdiction with a company that had allegedly been involved in bank fraud where the owners were in serious legal trouble. Those operators were also sharing a licensing jurisdiction with a company that could not pay U.S. players and were having problems paying players outside the U.S. It is certainly possible pressure from other licensed companies forced Alderney's hand.
Alderney has to know that this has hurt all player's chances of getting paid. I have to think that Alderney has been hoping that Full Tilt could figure out a way out of the hole they were in. Considering this situation could reflect bad on Alderney I feel they wanted to give Full Tilt every chance to make payments to players. Both Phil Ivey and Jack Binion had visited Full Tilt's office in Ireland recently. Maybe Alderney wanted to see if anything would come out of those talks. The license suspension has hurt Full Tilt's value and likely affects its ability to receive investment money from venture capitalists.
If talks were close and Alderney jumped the gun then that could be irresponsible. In my opinion Alderney likely gave Full Tilt every chance to comply and get players paid. Alderney must feel that the situation has become hopeless and that this was the only solution to preserve their own reputation.
Full Tilt Backup Plan
Full Tilt Poker likely knew this was coming. Alderney had to be watching this situation closely. I feel it is safe to assume Full Tilt had received a warning from Alderney and knew at some point their license would be suspended if they did not find a resolution. Maybe Full Tilt thought they could get the money needed to continue to operate and get U.S. players paid. Even if they thought that there should have been a backup plan. Hopefully Full Tilt is working right now on that backup plan so they can get back online quickly.
Closing Thoughts
After two and a half months it is obvious that there are some serious liquidity issues at Full Tilt. I do not believe this is the nail in the coffin for them though. Full Tilt can save their brand and if not there is still a lot of value in their software and patents including Rush Poker. I feel the goal is to preserve Full Tilt and keep the structure as close as possible as it is today. Selling out is likely a last resort but one that I am sure is being considered more and more with every passing day. |
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发表于 2011-7-1 00:22
发表于 2011-7-1 12:30
